@MarkKnudson41
Strike One: Going into the season, the deep and talented Denver Nuggets were considered to be at least on a par with the new-look Los Angeles Lakers, who had signed superstar and MVP candidate Anthony Davis during the off season. The two teams were considered among the three top favorites (along with the LA Clippers) to win the Western Conference.
In their first meeting, the Lakers had their way with the Denver, beating up the Nuggets 105-96 in Denver. Nikola Jokic was totally outplayed by LA’s trio of Davis, Dwight Howard and former Nugget Javale McGee. The Lake Show looked overpowering. It didn’t look like the teams were equals.
The Lakers got off to a smoking 24-5 start, including that win at the Pepsi Center. LeBron James has been stellar, playing in every game, averaging 35 minutes and 26 points per. LeBron’s Lakers are now considered by most to be the favorites to win the NBA title.
Riding a five-game winnings streak, the Nuggets got their second shot at LA on Sunday night – with LeBron sitting out his first game of the season with a groin strain. After a nip-and-tuck first half, the Nuggets pulled away from the cold-shooting Lakers with a 73-point second half to win 128-104 in a game that included another strong performance from Denver’s deep bench.
It was a huge road win for Denver, no doubt. Still, if the Nuggets, who moved to 20-8 with the W, expect to go toe-to-toe with LeBron and the Lakers come play-off time, they’ll need to find an answer for LA’s powerful inside game. Even in the convincing win, the Nuggets were outrebounded by the more physical hosts, and if James had been in the line-up, the outcome would have more than likely been significantly different.
The two teams will meet February 12th in Denver and one final time March 15th in LA…prior to play-off time.
Assuming both teams are at full strength in those contests, we’ll get a much better indication of who would be the favorite in the post season. No reason to think that with a healthy combo of James and Davis, the Lakers aren’t still a cut above.
Strike Two: Christmas comes a lot earlier now for college football programs. With National Letter of Intent Day moved up to the week before the holidays in 2017, teams are filling their Christmas stockings with top prospects before the high schoolers go on semester break. And regardless of how the national pundits think your favorite college did, every fan is excited about what Santa left under their tree.
People who follow recruiting with keen interest always take note of the “star ratings” that go along with the process. Each high school prospect is assigned a star rating – five being the best – by various recruiting services for the purpose of rankings every school’s recruiting class. Few of us actually understand how players earn their rating; they just hope their school can sign more four stars than two stars.
Coaches are quick to dismiss the star rating system, saying they don’t pay attention that that, and they’re only looking for athletes that they think can be good students and help them win football games. In every single case, coaches will praise their incoming class and tell you they don’t pay any attention to how many stars are next to any individual players name.
That sounds great of course, but it’s probably not the case. They know…and they should. A closer look tells you that the star rating system is actually a pretty darn good indicator of a team’s chances of competing for championships in future seasons. The better your recruiting class this year, the better your team’s chances of playing om or around New Year’s Day are in four years.
This season, Clemson, Ohio State, LSU and Oklahoma are the final four team playing for college football’s big prize. Each had a highly rated recruiting class four years ago.
In 2016, the top signing classes according to 24/7 Sports (behind top-ranked Alabama) included LSU at #2, Ohio State at #4, Clemson #11 and OU #19. (The Sooners are typically higher than that. OU was #8 the following year.)
Other teams playing in New Year’s Bowls this season include 2016’s #6 rated recruiting class, Georgia, #8 Michigan, #12 Florida, #20 Penn State, #27 Oregon, #35 Wisconsin and #40 Baylor.
Obviously, these “ratings” aren’t infallible, and the games don’t take place on a computer. In February of 2016 Florida State finished #3 in the recruiting rankings, Ole Miss #5 and Texas #7. Those teams didn’t have big years in 2019. Others like Wisconsin, Oregon and Baylor clearly outperformed their recruiting rankings, doing more with fewer “stars” when the games were played. Kudos to them.
Still, for the most part, it’s easy to see the value in the recruiting rankings. However it is that they do it, these dudes who assign star-ratings seem to be able to see into the college football future.
Locally, in 2016 Colorado finished ranked #69 in recruiting. CSU was #76, and Air Force #114. The Falcons (10-2) certainly outperformed that ranking. The Buffs (5-7) and the Rams (4-8) pretty much met the expectations that would follow those lower spots.
This December, the highest rated classes belong to…Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia.
College football could see a lot more of the same in 2023.
Strike Three: Most fans of the Denver Broncos have seen enough of young Drew Lock to be excited about the possibilities the quarterback brings for the future at the position. He’s got the arm and most importantly he’s got the swagger to become the leader this team has not had since Peyton Manning retired.
He needs experience. He’s getting it. And everything is trending the right direction.
Things look so good in fact, that Broncos Country will be visibly angry if the Broncos aren’t play-off team and a title contender next season.
When a team has those kinds of expectations – internally AND externally – they need to make certain that all their other bases are covered, too. During the upcoming off season, other weaknesses (in the Broncos case, most of that centers on the offensive line) need to be addressed, and things like injuries (which happen to every team every year) have to be planned for at some level.
So…not to be the grim reaper here, but what if Lock were to get injured next season? Is Broncos Country good with Brandon Allen under center – even for a few games – for a team with division title aspirations? I think the answer to that would be…nope.
So…what could the Broncos do to improve the back-up QB position this off-season?
Perhaps another Manning? Eli Manning to be specific? Could Eli fill that role for the Broncos?
With his best days behind him, Eli – a two-time Super Bowl MVP – will be shown the door in New York after the season. He’s played sparingly in this, his 16th season, giving way to another rookie, Daniel Jones. He’s thrown six touchdown passes and five picks, and is clearly not a full-time NFL starter anymore…but for a game or two?
Eli’s still got a little in the tank. He got a curtain call and the game ball in his final start for the Giants, a win over the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago.
So this is not to say that Eli is the guy to lead Denver to the Super Bowl as brother Peyton did when he took over as Denver’s starter in 2012. Still, Eli’s been a good mentor for Jones in NYC, and could serve a similar function for Lock in Denver…with the ability to fill in and keep things going for a handful of games if needed. (If Lock were to be lost for all or most of the season at any point, Broncos Country would need to collectively adjust the expectation level…a lot.)
If Eli is willing, the Broncos should be able to find a roster spot for a guy who has a lot to offer in the locker room, and a little bit left, on the field, too.
Just a thought.