@MarkKnudson41
Strike One: Despite not being able to pull out a third straight miracle against Lebron James and the LA Lakers, this Denver Nuggets season – especially the post season – was remarkable and inspirational. The only downside was not being able to see any of it in person. (Fingers crossed that that changes by January…)
The good news is that next year will be here before we know it for this team of 20-somethings with monster upside. They’ll get about three months of continued growth before next season tips off.
The question is, can they keep their “bubble mojo?” Keep the mental edge that magically appeared when they fell behind Utah 3-games-to-1 in the opening round and kept them going past the heavily favored LA Clippers in the second round? Keep up the fighting sprit that gave the Lakers, with two first team All-NBA stars on the court, all they wanted in the Western Conference Finals?
If they can, watch out.
For most of us watching the regular season (that was a long time ago) and the first set of “seeding” games in the Orlando bubble, that edge was exactly what was missing. That grit. That scrappiness. That “sandpaper.” Many of us called them “soft.” And we weren’t wrong…at the time.
Denver didn’t become an overly physical outfit overnight while they slept in the bubble, but they did become tougher in mentally. It became very apparent in all three series. And that needs to roll over into next year if they want to take the next step toward greatness.
The youngsters will grow. Michael Porter Jr., age 22, will get better and more assertive, especially on defense. He’ll watch film and he’ll learn. He will lift weights, he will work hard, and he will become a force in the league. Jamal Murray can finally shed the “box of chocolates” label if he can produce 25 points per night (instead of 45 one night and 12 the next.) His play in the post season was truly remarkable. And he’s only 23. Nikola Jokic is 25, Jeremy Grant 26 (his contract has a player option for 2021, but he’s likely to be back.) Monte Morris is 25, Gary Harris 26. That’s a heck of young nucleus.
The future’s so bright….
While Denver is justifiably proud of being pretty much a “home grown” team, they do need to make one addition, assuming 35-year-old Paul Milsap doesn’t return (and Mason Plumlee is a free agent, too.) Some beef in the lane would be very helpful for this talented young core. “Rim protector” isn’t part of Jokic’s job description, but it is for dudes like Montrezl Harrell, or Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel. Someone like that. Bigs that don’t need to touch the ball all that often but could provide some muscle inside.
That, and the maturity that will be provided by Mother Nature appears to be all this team really needs right now. They’ve seen up close what it takes to become a champion.
Now, on the other side of the spectrum…
Strike Two: Whenever a team has a down season – or in this case, a down one-third of a season, and a star player underachieves, as Nolan Arenado did this year (for several reasons, including a season-ending shoulder injury) the cries for change and improvement become deafening. Question is, do those cries fall of deaf ears?
The 2020 Colorado Rockies definitely fall into the category of “underachievers.” Despite the starting pitching pretty much returning to 2017 and 2018 play-off form, and despite Arenado’s injury, several standout players regressed, the bullpen imploded, and numerous prospects failed to take the next step forward or failed to establish themselves as big leaguers. The team posted its lowest on base percentage…ever. By all objective analysis, this one-third season was a total flop.
Changes are absolutely necessary. Imperative in fact. But will those changes involve Arenado? Or will they be done to appease him?
Last off season was full of “Will the Rockies trade Nolan” drama after the star third baseman and General Manager Jeff Bridich – who should have the adjective “embattled” in front of his name but does not – got into a dispute that ended up being made public by Arenado and his representatives. The dispute was about, ironically, changes/upgrades that the Rockies should have been making (in Nolan’s opinion) but didn’t.
Arenado signed a mega contract prior to the 2018 season, one that pays him $35 million per (full) season. (Like everyone else, including ownership, he took a big financial hit this season.) He can opt out of the contract after the 2021 season (but has five more years at $35 per on the deal…so opting out would likely be a financially painful thing to do…)
So here we sit, with plans for the 2021 season now underway at 20th and Blake, contemplating whether or not the Rockies should trade – or to be more accurate, try to trade Nolan.
Here are some facts that need to be considered.
First off, the Rockies will in no way shape or form be a better team if they no longer have their best player on the roster. As bad as they were this season, imagine not having any offensive production or standout defensive play from a future Hall of Famer who is in his prime for next season. Trading Nolan now (unlikely) or at the next trade deadline (more likely) would be raising the white flag.
Second, every team in baseball, including the Yankees and Dodgers, took a big financial hit this season. The number of teams who think they’re a standout third baseman away from winning the World Series and can afford to take on a $35 million contract in 2021 – knowing Arenado can opt out at the end of that season – equal roughly the number of teams that call the state of North Dakota home.
And let’s not forget that Nolan is coming off a season ending shoulder injury. That factors in heavily as well.
Any team that decides they do think Nolan is healthy and will put them over the top – for one year – will offer Colorado virtually nothing in return during the coming off season.
In other words, trading Nolan Arenado this off season would be a baseball-foolish move for everybody who may become involved. It would also be pure salary dump, sending a signal that a full tear down and rebuild – under the leadership of Bridich – would be underway.
If that happens, fans should react accordingly.
Strike Three: Trades, in any professional sport, are supposed to work for both teams. That’s not to say that trading an established player for unproven prospects can’t work out for both sides (I was involved in one of those myself) but I’m sure if someone went back and examined the history of those kinds of deals, they’d find that they worked out far better for one team more often than not.
A trade for a player like Arenado should net the “sending” team the return of a player of almost equal value. Getting unproven prospects back for a future Hall of Fame player in his prime is just bad business.
The last great trade in Colorado Rockies history to fit the description of a win-win? The November 2008 trade that sent Matt Holiday to Oakland for Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street. After the A’s sent Holiday to St. Louis in the middle of the 2009 season for prospects and cash. While a Cardinal, Holiday won a World Series. Street was very good for the Rockies, and Cargo went on to become one of the best players in Colorado franchise history. Everybody won.
When the Broncos sent future All-Pro offensive lineman Chris Hinton to the Baltimore Colts on draft day in 1983, they got future Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway in return. In December of 1996, the Colorado Avalanche sent their top goaltender Jocelyn Thibault, plus Martin Rucinsky and Andrei Kovalenko to Montreal, and got future Hall of Famer Patrick Roy in return. When the Nuggets sent future Hall of Famer Allen Iverson to Detroit in November of 2008, they brought “Mr. Big Shot,” NBA Finals MVP Chauncey Billups back home. When the Broncos needed a cornerback prior to the 2004 season, they sent their best running back, Pro Bowler Clinton Portis, to Washington and got future Hall of Famer Champ Bailey in return.
THAT’S how trades are supposed to work.
So with that being the standard, if you were Bridich, for whom would you…could you conceivably trade Arenado for next summer, if the Rockies are not in the play-off chase and the predicted “reboot” after the 2021 season begins a couple months early? Prospects? That will go over like a lead balloon.
The first name that pops to mind among established big leaguers of course is Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs. He’s a former MVP coming off injuries. Problem is, the Cubs don’t appear willing to take on more salary, which they’d have to do if they acquired Arenado. Otherwise, it may be a fair deal for two guys who have voiced at least some level of unhappiness with where they are now.
Otherwise, who could Colorado acquire to fill Nolan Arenado’s spikes? That’s the $35 million question.
Of course, if Nolan gets dealt at the trade deadline next season, it will more than likely be that “prospects” kind of deal. That should not sit well with Rockies fans.