@MarkKnudson41
A few June’s ago…it was 2019 to be exact…the Colorado Rockies did something very unusual. They bucked the trend and went the all-college route when it came time to draft new talent for their farm system. The club’s first 31 draft picks in that year’s MLB Draft were all college baseball players, not high school kids. In fact, they didn’t sign a single high school prospect that year. That’s highly unusual.
They should do that again.
To be honest, the 2019 class – players you think would be closer to being “big league ready” than high schoolers – hasn’t produced any ripples at the big league level just yet. Only top pick Michael Toglia from UCLA has drawn any acclaim from talent evaluators. But that doesn’t change the fact that the majority of Colorado’s most impactful draft picks over the years, guys like Jason Jennings from Baylor (the club’s only Rookie of the Year ever), Jon Gray (Oklahoma) and Kyle Freeland (Evansville) came from college programs. I’ll see your Matt Holiday and Nolan Arenado and raise you a Todd Helton (Tennessee) and a Troy Tulowitzki (Long Beach State).
High School kids can have all the upside in the world, but all the question marks, too. Some, like Holiday and Arenado eventually make it big. Others, like recent Rockies draft picks Riley Pint, Mike Nikorak and Forrest Wall have flamed out. Giving a seven figure signing bonus to an unknown, wet-behind-the-ears 18-year old kid has always seemed like risky business. Why not watch a player grow up in college before making him a millionaire?
The allure of high school kids is the idea that they have less wear and tear on them and are more “moldable.” But in the era of travel and club youth baseball, that’s no longer true. Many top high school pitchers have already thrown thousands of pitches over hundreds and hundreds of innings by the time they’re draft eligible. They aren’t any more physically stable than college players. That makes being able to watch a prospect – and see if he’s healthy – in college all that more valuable in the evaluation process. After all, the best ability is availability.
Also, teams don’t like to pass on high school prospects they’re high on for fear that another teams could grab him…as if that doesn’t also happen with college players?
A college player is much more of a known quantity and at least three years closer to becoming a big leaguer…if that’s in the cards for him. And for an organization like the Rockies, whose best farm system talent right now is still very young – Class AA and lower for the most part – getting players who will take less time to get to Denver seems like maybe it’s a good idea, right?
As far as this year’s draft goes, it doesn’t appear to be the year to go big on pitching, according to the experts. Not very many highly rated college OR high school pitchers on the board. The Rockies have the 10th overall pick, and if they do the smart thing and go the college route, they should be able to land one of several top college players like outfielder Gavin Gross from Virginia Tech, or Brock Jones from Stanford or Jordan Beck from Tennessee. Maybe an infielder like Zach Neto from Campbell or Jace Jung from Texas Tech. And for an organization that has never had an All-Star, home grown or otherwise, behind the plate, catcher Daniel Susac from Arizona may be there for the taking.
This is where the scouts make their money…and their mark on the organization.
Rockies fans are going to be disappointed with how this season turns out, record-wise. The guys in purple probably won’t reach last season’s 74 win total. Hopefully they won’t have to be disappointed with a high school draft pick – a player who won’t be able to contribute to the big league team’s improvement for another six or seven years at least.
Be sure to catch Mark Knudson and Manny Randhawa on the Park Adjusted Rockies Podcast each week, available on all major Podcast platforms.