@MarkKnudson41
Strike One: You just have to shake your head and mutter to yourself when you read some of the nonsense coming from those who cover other MLB teams when it comes to the idea of the Rockies trading Nolan Arenado.
The “sure, we’ll take him off your hands” crowd is so incredibly clueless. No idea or concept of what makes a trade viable for both sides. They want to give you their trash in return for your treasure.
Here’s where things actually stand: It all starts with the fact that the Rockies don’t have to do anything. Nolan’s under contract for at least two more seasons. Even if he wants out badly (which is debatable) he has zero leverage. He can’t force anything. He will be a Rockie as long as the Rockies want him to be between now and the end of 2021. So, there’s that.
But let’s say for arguments sake that the Rockies did have interest in making a deal. Then we start with the fact that Nolan also has a full no-trade clause in his contract. That means if Jeff Bridich wants to send Nolan to the Miami Marlins, he needs to get Nolan’s okay. Given the fact that Nolan has long stated his desire to always play for a contending team, he’d very likely veto that idea quickly. That goes for all the other teams who don’t have any realistic play-off hopes.
So…if we narrow the prospective field of trade partners to only those teams in serious contention (sorry, Texas Rangers) then we’re left with only teams who wouldn’t want to part with key players who are important in maintaining that contender status, right? For instance, if St. Louis wants Nolan so badly, they’d have to buy plane tickets west for players like pitcher Jack Flaherty and shortstop/third baseman Paul DeJong.
Does anyone see that happening? Nope.
Newsflash: The Rockies aren’t looking to get back any team’s batch of prospects for their future Hall of Famer. They have a solid core of 20-somethings, including All-Stars Trevor Story and David Dahl. They are NOT in “rebuild” mode – as most of the national media seems to believe. What the national media simply cannot grasp is what the Rockies would demand in return for Arenado.
There’s simply is no good baseball deal out there to be made.
Another large part of that is Story, Dahl, Kyle Freeland, Scott Oberg, Jon Gray and the rest of the key players on a team that’s been to the post season twice in the past three seasons. What would they think if the Rockies front office threw up the white flag by trading Arenado for prospects? Story’s brand-new deal is for two more years – same length of time Colorado has control of Nolan. What will Story want to do if Nolan is traded? Think he’d be eager to come back? Gray? Freeland? Oberg? Dahl?
Moves like trading your best player tells the rest of the team that you don’t believe in them. It would affect the entire organization negatively for years to come. There’s a good reason Todd Helton remained a Rockie during the rebuilding years in the mid 2000’s. Players like that have value beyond their own stat line.
Whether or not the Rockies contend this season with this core remains to be seen. A lot of “ifs” have to go their way. But it could certainly happen. No one thought they were a play-off team at this point in 2017. Most believed they were a play-off team a year ago at this time. Wrong in both cases. None of us have a crystal ball that’s worth a darn. We’ll see what happens on the field starting in late March. Expect Arenado, Story, Dahl and Gray to be in the Rockies starting line-up that day in San Diego.
Strike Two: The week began with the unexpected and very happy Rockies news. Even though we knew it’d be a close vote, and even though we all thought Larry Walker should be in the Hall of Fame, it was a surprise to most when we heard that he actually did make it – in his 10th and final year of eligibility – by a mere six votes. Whew.
For Walker and his family, that’s all that matters. He’s in. The wait is over. It’s happened. It’s all good.
For some of us though, there’s still this lingering angst over the process. While Yankee fans are irked that Derek Jeter fell a single vote short of being a unanimous selection, the fact that there’s still a vocal minority that loudly dispute Walker’s credentials and complaining about his inclusion…well, them are fightin’ words. Call those folks low-information voters.
Full disclosure (and I’ve written this before.) I was/am old school. For a long time, I was in the “A position player needs 3,000 hits, or 500 homers” camp. Those were the old benchmarks and Walker fell well short of them during his career, largely due to time missed because of injury. I – and many others – felt like Larry didn’t play in enough baseball games to be a true Hall of Fame player.
Then, through prompting from younger colleagues, I began to look more closely at the numbers. The Analytics. Advanced metrics. All the nerd stuff. It ALL screams that Larry Walker is a Hall of Famer. In fact, it says that he’s among the best right fielders (the most represented position in the Hall of Fame) to ever play.
You can check those numbers for yourself like I did. That turned me completely around. I just wish more members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (the BBWAA) would do the same, because what they think is what actually matters.
Thankfully enough of them did their homework this year, although there were still some glaring and mind-numbing excuses given for not voting for Walker. Those excuses make you wonder exactly who IS voting, and why they get a vote? What are the necessary qualifications to be a voter?
The answer is simple: Be a certified member of the BBWAA for 10 years. Then you get a vote. Heck, you don’t even need to actually watch or cover baseball after you’ve met those criteria.
Last summer, I checked to see if I could apply for membership in the BBWAA. I was told – correctly – that even though I’m a former player, I don’t meet the criteria of a) being a writer who covers baseball full, full, FULL time (which I don’t) and/or b) write for an established publication that does (like most national sports columnists.) I can accept that.
What I can’t accept it that people who DO cover the sport full, full, FULL time, like for example those on the MLB network, or some at ESPN or other broadcast outlets, don’t get a vote. These are people who cover the game more extensively than anyone else, including beat writers.
There are a good number of people voting for the Hall of Fame each year that don’t attend or see more than a handful of baseball games every year, if that. Some are even retired now and don’t cover the sport at all anymore. Yes, many are being phased out, but not fast enough.
Meanwhile, the guys at the MLB network watch/talk about on TV and radio…and yes, even WRITE about baseball 365 days a year. But they can’t vote.
I get that the BBWAA is an exclusive club – for good reason. But times have changed. Sports media is no longer writers OR broadcasters. That distinguishing line hasn’t been blurred; it’s been wiped out completely. Sports media is now writers being broadcasters, and vice versa. We all do some of both in today’s sports media. Many have been doing both at the highest levels for more than two decades.
It’s time the voting block for all the sports Hall of Fames reflected that change. If/when the BBWAA opens its doors to more of those who cover the game – writers and broadcasters – with a microscope (and yes, a calculator too) then the next Larry Walker won’t have to wait a full decade to be recognized as a Hall of Famer.
Strike Three: I was one of those who loudly suggested that the Rockies strongly consider trading Charlie Blackmon during this soon to be completed off season. They didn’t.
A very good source tells me he thinks they did try to make a deal to move Blackmon but weren’t able to pull it off.
Blackmon remains an elite hitter, period. Expect that he will put up great numbers for the Rockies again in 2020. He’s halfway through a contract that will take him through 2021 and pay him $77 million – with a player option for 2022 and 2023 (sound familiar?)
But Charlie’s a guy without a defensive position. He was never an above average outfielder, and now over time, wear and tear has turned him into a well below average glove man. The defensive metrics were not kind to the Rockies outfield defense as a whole last season…and Charlie is among the weakest links.
Just like teammate Daniel Murphy – who was a poor defensive third baseman before being moved to second base…where he was a poor defensive second baseman…before being moved to first base, where he’s…really bad – Blackmon profiles as a designated hitter now, at age 33. So, trading him to an American League team would seem like a natural move at this stage in his career. It’s hard to imagine that there wasn’t an AL team out there that would have gushed at the idea of having Blackmon as their DH this season and been willing to pay the remaining two years on his contract.
But it didn’t happen. Why? Well, there’s a theory we may not have thought of.
The same source tells me that the word inside MLB is the designated hitter is coming to the National League sooner than we think (and sooner than some of us want…like never in my case.) Perhaps it’s in place in both leagues as soon as 2021. The Major League Baseball Players Association is in favor of it, and with the collective bargaining talks already going on, it’s possible that this change gets made sooner rather than later. Conventional wisdom, as well as some informed reporting, says that the DH is coming to the NL in 2022, as part of the new agreement that will take effect at the end of the 2021 season.
Will Charlie Blackmon still be a great hitter at age 34 or 35? Maybe with a few more good seasons in him…if he doesn’t have to play the outfield? We’ll see.
Perhaps the return the Rockies would have gotten for Blackmon wasn’t good enough to offset the idea of him being the teams full time DH in 2021? It’s a gamble, given that Blackmon’s contract (as well as Arenado’s and Story’s) is up at the same time the current collective bargaining agreement expires. He may no longer be a Rockie when the team could use him the best. Stay tuned.