Week one of what everyone hopes will be a somewhat normal College Football season has arrived. Coming off a COVID-wracked 2020 season that was a total farce – with some teams playing up to 13 games (like Alabama) and others playing a few as four (Colorado State) you’d think that things can only get better. But remember, this is a sport that has decided – with the help of some “act first, think later” politicians – to begin the process of imploding, so “normal” will never mean what it used to.
Making predictions for the 2021 season is pointless. No one really knows what to expect. Okay, we do know that this broken sport will have Alabama and Clemson in the final four again, and that they’re likely to be joined by Ohio State and Oklahoma or Notre Dame. That’s the script and they’re doing everything they can to make sure they stick to it. Otherwise, with every player who wanted it granted an extra year of eligibility, every team returns a squad that’s more experienced than ever before.
With that as the backdrop, they’re going to kick it off in Boulder, Fort Collins and Colorado Springs this weekend, and what we don’t know about what’s likely to happen this season far outweighs what we do know. There are mysteries on nearly campus in the country.
Strike One: Unlike their (sorta) rivals to the north, questions about new Colorado Buffaloes Head Coach Karl Dorrell did get answered during the quagmire that was 2020. To refresh, Dorrell got the CU gig in mid-February after “Midnight Mel” Tucker bolted for Michigan State. He didn’t get a chance to meet his players or hold a single workout before the COVID shutdown occurred. Still, when the Pac 12 got back to playing a semi-season, Dorrell rallied his team and won four of the six games they played, earning Dorrell Pac 12 Coach of the Year honors. Given all that happened, he should have been National Coach of the Year.
Now, after CU’s second winning season in more than a decade, fans have high expectations again. That’s not a good thing. The 2021 season will probably be a lot tougher on the Buffs than last season was.
They do have their best player, linebacker Nate Landman back to bolster the defense. But for CU, the mystery is under center. They’re one of the minority of teams don’t return their starting quarterback (although CSU doesn’t either.) Sam Noyer was All-Pac 12 last season, but for some odd reason, he elected to transfer to conference rival Oregon State for his final year of eligibility. (Noyer and the Beavers are scheduled to return to Folsom Field on November 6th. Likewise standout receiver K.D. Nixon, who bolted for Southern Cal. The Trojans come to Folsom on October 2nd.)
Yes, this transfer portal/free agency thing in College Football is brutal.
Now playing quarterback for the Buffs is redshirt freshman Brendon Lewis. After a knee injury to Tennessee transfer J.T. Shrout in camp, what looked to be a tight battle went to Lewis by default. Now the dual threat Texas high school product will be called upon to keep up the momentum Dorrell generated last season. It won’t be an easy task.
Lewis played in one game last year – he replaced the ineffective Noyer in the Buffs 55-23 loss to Texas in the Alamo Bowl. He performed well, completing six of 10 passes for 95 yards and rushing for 73 yards and a score. That performance has given Buffs fans reason for optimism.
Insiders say there are some maturation issues with the Lewis. “Thin skinned” was the term used. He’s going to have to grow up in a hurry with CU facing nationally ranked Texas A&M in Denver on September 11th and Big Ten foe Minnesota on the 18th…and that’s before a trip to rejuvenated Arizona State and the visit from USC to start the season. Lewis will be backed up by a pair of true freshmen.
Lewis will likely be asked to hand the ball to standout sophomore running back Jarek Broussard a lot in Friday night’s opener against Northern Colorado. After that, the going gets tough and he’ll need to be tougher to get going.
Strike Two: He’s been on the job now for more than a year and a half, and Colorado State fans still don’t know what to expect from head coach Steve Addazio. He remains the mystery in the Fort.
Few teams had a more COVID damaged season in 2020 than the Rams. A 12-game schedule was reduced to eight before it began…and after COVID cancellations (including the final Rocky Mountain Showdown game with CU scheduled for Canvas Stadium and the annual tilt with Air Force) they ended up playing four games total. Toss in a forfeit “win” over Utah State – who’s players “opted out” for reasons that had nothing to do with the virus, and Addazio’s record at CSU is thus far 2-3. Not much to go on there.
Meanwhile, there were issues off the field with adherence to COVID protocols and alleged (not proven) poor treatment of players. Not a great look.
Addazio’s first CSU team did manage to do something his predecessor Mike Bobo was unable to do – beat a rival. CSU won back the Bronze Boot from Wyoming in their only home game of the season. So there’s that. Otherwise, the term “square peg round hole” seems to fit here. Bobo recruited a team built to throw the ball all over the field. Addazio’s style has been run, run, run.
He even went so far as to bench returning quarterback Patrick O’Brien – who has since transferred to Washington – for the season opener. O’Brien is a solid drop back-style passer who had done some good (and some not-so-good) things under center for the Rams. The replacement was dual threat Todd Centeio, who did some good stuff with his feet but who was terrible at throwing the football. O’Brien eventually got the job back, but his departure means Centeio is the man for 2021. Will the passing game improve? Will there be a passing game at all?
Addazio is most likely to stay true to form and try to make his first real Rams offense a run-first (second and third) outfit. Will he focus much, if at all, on getting the ball to honors candidate Trey McBride or outside to playmaker Dante Wright for example? Addazio’s already on his second offensive coordinator, so what impact will that have?
CSU figures to be more stout on defense than they were under Bobo…but that’s a low bar to clear. And the kicking game should be solid. But what kind of offensive style, and how willing the long time Boston College head coach will be to change tactics that aren’t working is the mystery. Will he stick with Centeio if the Temple transfer isn’t able to be effective in the passing game? The back up is Boston College transfer Matt Valecce, who also handed off a lot in his prior life.
Will CSU – formerly billed as “Wide Receiver U” – put the ball in the air as many as two dozen times in a single game? Stay tuned.
Strike Three: Air Force doesn’t redshirt. The non-service academy programs give a player five years to play four…and now you can even play four games in a season and not have it count against your eligibility. So players routinely stay in school for five years (or more) and play in more than four seasons these days.
Not at Air Force. It’s a four year deal, period. Until this year.
Given the craziness and uncertainty of 2020, as many as three dozen Air Force football players decided to use a little known loophole that let them basically redshirt last season. It’s called “turnback” and it allowed them to withdraw from school for one semester and not burn a season of athletic eligibility. That decision was made before the Mountain West ran a reverse and decided to play a partial season in 2020 after originally opting to cancel it. When the season happened anyway, it was too late to re-enlist.
Now they’re back. And Air Force coach Troy Calhoun has a “dilemma” he hasn’t had before. He’s got perhaps too much experience returning on one side of the ball. Is that possible? Can a team really return 15 defensive starters?
Given that AFA returns eight players who started games on defense last season, plus at least seven who’ve started in previous non-COVID seasons (in all, 14 players are back who have started more than one game) the answer is yes…and it seem like a good problem to have, really.
Calhoun has been able to point at the fact that everyone got an additional year of eligibility and that his guys who sat it out didn’t get to even practice with the team. And he does have to replace every starter along the offensive line. But these sentiments are coming from a guy who rarely has an optimistic quote ready for publication. The fact is, no Air Force team has ever had this much experience returning. And being as most of it is on defense makes you wonder exactly how good this team can be. That’s the mystery.
The recent history of Air Force football is that they quietly reload and are often times at their very best when little is expected of them. Each season there’s a breakout player or three that emerge from the depth chart and take the MW by storm. This season, they’ll be counting on improvement from quarterback Haaziq Daniels, who’s coming off minor shoulder surgery and was up and down during last year’s 3-3 mini-campaign. There are others waiting in the wings for a crack at the QB job, and with history as our guide, we can expect someone (perhaps sophomore Zachary Larrier, who won the MW indoor track 200 meters?) to emerge as a lethal threat out of AFA’s triple option.
So the mystery at the Academy is not what will stand out, but who.