@MarkKnudson41
Strike One: The Colorado Avalanche have a great chance to win the franchise’s third Stanley Cup – their first since 2001. Since going into the NHL’s western bubble, they’ve been the most impressive team in the league.
In previous seasons, Colorado was considered by many to have the top scoring line in the NHL, led by superstar Nathan MacKinnon. But there were holes elsewhere – lack of scoring from the other three forward lines and a defense that wasn’t necessarily up to par with other Cup contenders.
That’s changed over time. Nazem Kadri now leads a second line that is nearly as dynamic as MacKinnon’s top unit. Colorado had 12 players score goals in the first round demolition of the Arizona Coyotes. Obviously, they now have all the scoring depth they need.
On defense, young stud Cale Makar has teamed with veteran Erik Johnson and Samuel Girard to make Colorado formidable on the blue line. The Avs can now go pretty much six deep on defense.
They’ve had the kind of success that leads to inevitable comparisons with the great Avalanche Stanley Cup winnings teams of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. For those who don’t remember, those teams featured Hall of Famers like forwards Peter Forsberg and Joe Sakic, defenseman Rob Blake and Ray Bourque and goaltender Patrick Roy. Incredible units led by true legends of the game.
Back in December of 1995, the newly minted Avalanche (they were the Quebec Nordiques until moving to Denver the previous summer and becoming the Avs) turned a proverbial corner when the acquired Roy from the Montreal Canadians. Roy was sensational in net, leading Colorado to their first Stanley Cup title and making himself into a Rocky Mountain legend.
Before Roy arrived, the Nordiques/Avs were very good…just not great. That’s what a star goaltender can do for a team.
And that’s what this Avs team in missing. Not that the current tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz aren’t very very good, because they are. Don’t you have to be to play in the NHL? But is either net minder “great?” Neither has ever been an All-Star. Still, these Avs could win the Cup with either in net. Or they might not.
Truly great goaltenders can make up for a lot of shortcomings, like turnovers and lapses on defense. Both those factors hurt the Avs in a Game 1 loss to Dallas in round two of the play-offs. The combo of Grubauer and Francouz gave up five goals in that game.
Previously, in the Avs dominant series win over Arizona, the pair faced just 108 shots in five games, less than 22 per game. In his Game 1 shutout, Grubauer had to make just 14 saves. Meanwhile, his opposite number, the Coyotes Darcy Kuemper made 49 saves in Game 3 alone, and Arizona faced a literal, yes…avalanche of shots in the five game series: 185 that reached the net, and many many more that were blocked by defenseman.
Point is, the Avs vastly improved defense, coupled with solid play from Grubauer (who was injured in the Game 1 loss to Dallas in round two) and Francouz could be enough to help them win this year’s Stanley Cup. But to attain true greatness, and to be talked about in the same breath with the Avs teams of the late 1990’s, Colorado has to find a goaltender that isn’t just very good, but will remind fans of Roy.
Strike Two: Followers of the Colorado Rockies keep waiting. Waiting for the inevitable “break out.” Waiting for the offensive explosion they know is coming. Broadcasters and writers keep telling us “it’s just a matter of time” before superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado breaks out of his offensive funk and begins driving in runs like the RBI machine he’s been for the past seven seasons.
But…what if it doesn’t happen this season? Because there’s a decent chance it won’t.
Players – even great, future Hall of Fame players – can have bad seasons. It happens. It might just be that Nolan Arenado never gets back in a groove at the plate in this strange and awkward 2020.
It’s happened to other greats. Take the case of Hall of Fame catcher Johnny Bench, considered by most of us to be the GOAT – the best catcher who ever played. Like Nolan, Bench was a defensive stalwart, winning 10 straight Gold Glove awards. But he was also a force at the plate. During his 17 year career, he led the league in home runs twice and RBI three times while playing the most difficult defensive position in the game. Bench was an All-Star 14 times in his career.
In 1970, the young star helped lead the Cincinnati Reds to the World Series. The 1968 National League Rookie of the Year made his third straight All-Star game, won his third straight Gold Glove and the first of two Most Valuable Player Awards. While hitting .293, he smashed 45 homers and drove in a ridiculous 148 runs. He didn’t quite match those numbers in 1972, but still won his second MVP, hitting 40 bombs and driving home 125 runs…and the Reds went back to the World Series.
But sandwiched in the middle of those two MVP seasons? A down year in 1971. Yes, he made the All-Star team and won another Gold Glove, but his batting average dropped to an unsightly .238, he hit “just” 27 homers and drove in only 61 runs – less than half of his totals for the year before and the year after. No MVP votes, and no post season. In fact, it was the Reds only losing season of the 1970’s. The future Hall of Famer had a bad season. It happens.
And right now, it’s happening to the Rockies future Hall of Famer.
Of course, Arenado might snap out of this funk at the plate and go on a Nolanesque tear at the plate any day now. But he might not.
Arenado – who is hitting a paltry .218 roughly halfway through this abbreviated season – has had seven sensational offensive seasons in a row. If he’s going to have a down year, it’s understandable that 2020 could be it. Perhaps there are lingering effects from the turbulent off season and his verbal tussle with General Manager Jeff Bridich. Perhaps it’s the burden of a huge contract and the expectations that come with it. The most likely factor is the new set of pre-game guidelines and protocols that were put into place across baseball due to COVID-19, which have seriously disrupted the pre-game preparation routine of Arenado (and others.) Like many players he’s a creature of habit, and that routine has been thrown way off.
His swing looks way off. He’s slapping at the ball, making weak contact. He is defensive at the plate; unlike any slump we’ve seen him in before. It very well might take a normal off season for Nolan to find his groove so we can see a typical “Nolan being Nolan” season again in 2021.
Strike Three: In the NBA, playing “good defense” doesn’t mean “shutting down” the other team. NBA players are going to make shots, they’re going to score points. Playing good defense means making it more difficult for the offense to get good looks, creating a formidable obstacle to the other team’s offensive plan. Altering shots, changing shot selections. Staying in front of your man as long as you can. Hands in the passing lanes and in the faces of shooters. Harassing the guy with the ball.
Putting up some kind of fight.
Playing defense – and rebounding for that matter – isn’t all about talent. It’s all about effort.
That’s where these Denver Nuggets seem to fall short. And not just on defense. Overall, the Denver Nuggets are too soft. They don’t look like they want any part of a fight.
The Nuggets need to, in locker room terminology, “grow a pair.”
The best Nuggets team of the new millennium was the 2009 Western Conference Finals team that earned the nickname, the “Thuggets” because of their reliance on (sometimes overly) physical play – on both ends. But it worked. That exact style probably wouldn’t fly in this version of the NBA, where the three point shot rules. But having some level of physicality is still a necessity…and Denver doesn’t have much of any.
The team we’ve seen in the bubble has been wildly inconsistent on offense, which happens when you aren’t physical inside. When it came time for the play-offs, Denver became almost totally reliant on the boom or bust game of Jamal Murray. Even Nikola Jokic was more about jump shots than getting to the rim. In the pivotal Game 4 loss to Utah, as a team Denver shot just 12 free throws. That’s how it goes when you’re reliant on the jump shot.
But the story of the Nuggets post season will be about defense, or lack of it. Moving forward, Michael Malone’s Nuggets will need to find some toughness and a commitment to defense. Some of it will have to come from within, but they will also likely have to find a replacement for Paul Milsap, who was being counted on to provide that interior presence. He looks worn out. They can’t count on skinny rookie Bol to be that guy. He has great length but looks like a strong wind would blow him away. Time to start shopping.
Denver doesn’t have to blow things up, but Malone will need to do things differently. Find a guy who wants to mix it up down low. Teach Michael Porter Jr the importance of playing strong defense every time down the floor. A talented guy like Jeremy Grant can be better on that end.
Get more aggressive on offense. Help Murray learn to incorporate MPJ into the offense and let him begin to slice to the rim. That will open things up for Murray, Jokic and everyone else.
The best can be yet to come for this Nuggets team. But it’s going to take a new mindset – a commitment to physical play and some, umm…intestinal fortitude…to reach the next level.