Strike One: You’re not shocked. You’re not even surprised that the Colorado Rockies chose to stand pat at this year’s frenetic Major League Baseball trading deadline – When they absolutely could have improved their future. Standing pat is historically what the Rockies do best.
It’s true that during their two-year run of play-off appearances (just three or four years ago…but feels like ages) Colorado did break with tradition and become active buyers at the deadline, bringing in players like catcher Jonathon Lucroy and relief pitcher Pat Neshek to help with what became a successful post-season push. Those were the good ‘ol days.
Those were also aberrations.
Way more often than not, the Rockies front office philosophy has been to steadfastly hold on to what they have…to what they know and are familiar with. That falls in line with an overall organizational philosophy that’s very conservative by nature. They’re the opposite of bold. More proof? Actually, they did make a couple minor trade moves before this year’s deadline – they brought back a couple of young minor league prospects that they’d previously traded away. They prioritized re-acquiring marginal assets. That’s playing it safe.
It not surprising that the guy who was the VP of scouting – who is now calling the shots – wanted to bring back young prospects that he had acquired in the first place. That VP of scouting is now still technically Colorado’s “interim” General Manager, but Bill Schmidt has job security. Interim guys are typically in audition mode – having to do something outstanding or even extraordinary in order to be considered for the full time position. GM gigs are highly coveted and there are normally a whole lot of excellent external candidates for ownership to consider. But with the Rockies, out of towners need not apply.
The Rockies don’t operate like other clubs. Remember the part about holding on to what they know and are a familiar with? So it would be a major shock if Schmidt didn’t get the gig full time. The odds of him not being the Rockies General Manager in October are about the same as the Rockies participating in a play-off game that month.
So even without the title, Schmidt does actually have that coveted job security right now. If he still had to prove himself to ownership (which has employed him for more than 20 years already) he might have been forced to try to make a splash at the deadline. Since he doesn’t, why would he take a chance of making a bad deal and risk getting ridiculed the same way his predecessor did for the botched Nolan Arenado trade last winter?
Schmidt played it safe. He played not to lose. You know that old saying about it being better to keep quiet and let people think you’re a fool, rather than opening your mouth and proving it? That same idea applies here.
This is a Rockies front office is flux. It’s borderline dysfunctional in its current state. Pulling the trigger on trades that would have involved their best player (Trevor Story) or one of their best starting pitchers (Jon Gray) would have required some sound organizational thought and planning. What’s left of the Rockies front office simply isn’t in that space right now. Instead, letting the contracts of Gray and Story run out at the end of the season (and then getting a compensatory draft pick in return) gives the front office a safe out, and a way to save face if either or both players leave. (Story likely will, while Gray may accept a below market value contract extension to stay where he’s comfortable.) “We made them an offer and they choose not to accept it. It’s on them, not us.” That’s the same way they tried to frame the Arenado trade. It was blatantly false then and its inaccurate now.
The Rockies could have taken steps to acquire young talent that wasn’t several years away from contributing on the field. Instead, they choose the safety net of a draft pick and the option of blaming the player for leaving. Worst part about it is that by playing not to lose – including not embracing a full rebuild – they’re setting themselves up to lose a lot more.
Strike Two: The latest “seismic shift” in college football was not unexpected, it just happened a little sooner than expected. Oklahoma and Texas leaving the Big 12 and heading to the SEC is just the latest move toward a “Super League” of college football’s biggest and richest programs. And it’s on the horizon.
Colorado State isn’t and will never be one of those programs. But the school’s college football future could actually benefit from a split between the “have-somes” and the “have-way-more-than-they-needs.”
Last time there was substantive talk about conference re-alignment, Ram fans were in a tizzy about the notion of CSU joining the Big 12. It never got close to happening of course, and it’s better that it didn’t. Instability is the last thing a program like CSU’s needs. Fortunately, we’re not hearing any serious talk about the Big 12 adding schools like CSU right now. Not yet anyway. Hopefully CSU followers have learned what University of Colorado folks already knew a decade ago – the Big 12 was and is a house of cards. Stand clear.
So where does this leave CSU…and Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico and the like?
Perhaps in a better, more comfortable and familiar place?
Given the trends – free agency in the form of the “transfer portal,” players who have never even started a college game now being allowed to sign million dollar endorsement contracts, and the inevitable Super Conference model – there will soon be a whole lot more standard colleges and universities – where the head football coach isn’t that state’s highest paid employee – who might welcome the chance to return to the way college football used to be, before the money became so big for so few and only a handful of teams have a legitimate chance to compete for the biggest prizes. Before the college games began to morph into a professional minor league for the NFL.
The NCAA leadership – stung by recent court losses and having been stripped of the last elements of amateurism left in the sport – is going to meet and have a “constitutional convention” later this year. One task will be to see if the behemoth programs (currently contained in what’s still being referred to as the Power Five) can be controlled at all, or if that group should be encouraged to branch off on their own and become that 60-something team Super (professional) League you keep hearing about.
If they did break away, then programs like CSU’s could become part of a revamped and strengthened NCAA. They could have real student athletes playing in normal, somewhat geographical conferences, bowl games of their own, and a national champion not named Alabama or Clemson every season.
It’s even likely that a handful of the current Power Five schools might want to take a step back and considering playing actual “college” football again, too.
The upper crust of college football is ultimately going to become a pay-for-play NFL minor league. So be it. There will still be room for actual college football, too. Plenty of media platforms will want to have Mountain West games to broadcast. The money won’t be what it will be for the Super League, but it won’t have to be. The true college game enriches us in a lot of other ways.
Strike Three: Could one of the current Power Five schools that lacks a fighting chance to compete under the current model and might welcome a return to the old ways of the sport be…the University of Colorado?
I can hear Buff fan now, loudly proclaiming that CU has always been a big boy and will always be one. Sorry Buff fan, this new reality says otherwise.
The more the Name, Image and Likeness thing takes hold, the more of a disadvantage CU will be at moving forward. There aren’t CU boosters willing to help lure the top high school quarterbacks to Boulder with the promise of a seven-figure payday. The sport doesn’t have that kind of a warped fan base around here. (We save our ‘warped’ for the Denver Broncos.) The gap between the Oregons and USC’s and the CU’s within the current Power Five is only going to grow and grow.
Understanding that college football is almost a niche sport around here, and that resources for the local programs are limited, how important will the opportunity to win consistently become? Colorado can remain with the big boys, accept the fat paychecks and be on-field fodder for the richer programs…or they can opt out, reconfigure their own internal expectations and land in a place where they can become the big fish in a smaller but still attractive pond.
The opportunity to win in basketball and in non-revenue sports will still be there, since the NCAA controls the post season tournament, and the big boys can’t do anything about that. But will success in those sports be enough to wash away the taste of 3-9 football seasons?
This is where the discussion becomes all about money. Could a school like CU (or Washington State, or Oregon State, or Iowa State, or Texas Tech, Boston College, Indiana…and several dozens more) ultimately decide that the monster paydays a Super League can provide is worth getting your head handed to you on the field every Saturday?
It’s a tough call. Alums and boosters want to win. They want the end result of their donations to wind up in a trophy case. Will Cross Country and Skiing trophies be enough? Or will winning a championship in what would essentially be “Tier Two” of college football be better?
It won’t be an easy decision, but it’s one that several current Power Five schools will ultimately have to make. The arms race in college football is not going to slow down. It’s only going to intensify until only the biggest, richest programs are left standing, and the Super League is upon us. Who wants to be part of the continuing coronation of Alabama and Clemson, and who wants a chance to win something themselves?