Strike One: The Denver Nuggets appear to have gotten the match up they wanted in the first round of the NBA Bubble Play-offs. In the #3 vs #6 matchup that does not include a home court advantage, the Utah Jazz will provide the first roadblock to advancing in the tough Western Conference.
The Nuggets did sweep the season series 3-0 from the Jazz this year for the first time since . That’s the good news. The bad news is that regular starters Gary Harris and Will Barton don’t appear ready to contribute, and the Nuggets didn’t exactly wow anyone in their final eight games, going just 3-5 and finishing dead last in defensive stats while in Orlando. And all three games between the two teams this elongated were very close, including a double overtime tilt.
The folks who follow the Jazz are not scared of the Nuggets. This was the match up they wanted, too. They don’t feel like they’re team is the underdog.
The recipe for advancement for Utah is simple – hit three point shots. The Nuggets will give up open ones with regularity. If Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles and the rest of the Jazz are making “catch and shoot” threes, it’s gonna be an uphill climb for Denver. The Nuggets perimeter defense was dreadful in Orlando, with the other guys hitting 44% of three point attempts. During the full season, Utah was an outstanding three point shooting team, hitting 39% of their attempts. Against the Nuggets, they were even better. And they won’t be shy in throwing them up. Utah took 55 threes against the Nuggets in the double overtime game.
It’s not all good news for Utah, either. Starting guard Mike Conley is absent from the bubble for the birth of his son, and probably won’t be available for the first several games of the series. That puts even more pressure on Mitchell, who will have to deal with one of the Nuggets few stellar defenders, Torrey Craig.
On the other end, Utah doesn’t need to watch a bunch of game tape to know that when crunch time arrives in the fourth quarter, and Jamal Murray gets the ball in his hands, that Denver will almost always revert to a “two-man” game. That features Murray feeding the ball to Nikola Jokic and either getting it back on a hand off and trying to create his own shot, or having Joker shoot it himself. Jokic has had his way against Jazz defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert this season. If he’s left one on one with Gobert, Joker can take things over. But it’s not likely he will be. Utah will likely throw a lot of double teams at the Nuggets All-Star, and if last year’s play-off showed us anything, it’s that Murray is not at his best in those situations.
Which makes Michael Porter Jr. that much more important. MPJ can change the game. IF Utah has to focus defensive energy on MPJ, it makes double teaming Jokic that much more difficult, and it could allow for Murray to spot up and be open for jump shots – which IS his forte.
They always say be careful what you wish for. Both of these teams wanted this match up. One of them will end up regretting it.
Strike Two: Some team will win the NBA Finals, and one will win the NHL Stanley Cup. Both will have done so in the strangest of fashion, absent any home games and the fanfare that comes with a championship. Asterisk? Perhaps…although both leagues have played close to full and complete seasons, so the champs can certainly claim legitimacy.
When these seasons are over for those title teams and the others who’ve battled late into the play-offs, the turnaround will be very quick. Next season is slated to start in early December. Since America’s fight with the COVID-19 remains ongoing with no real end in sight, early December figures to be pretty much like mid-August in terms of dealing with health and safety guidelines.
Could next season start inside “The Bubble” for the NBA and NHL teams?
Doubtful. The logistics of bringing all the teams to these bubble sites has got to be nearly impossible. The NHL had two sites for 16 playoff teams, while the NBA took 22 of its 30 teams to Orlando, with each having a decent shot at making the post season. Imagine having to figure out how to add eight more teams to the single site in Orlando, while having to find room for 15 more teams in either Toronto or Edmonton.
The 2020-21 hoops season played entirely in Florida? And NO hockey in the USA?
It’s almost impossible to see it actually happen that way. The play-off bubble was a good idea. It’s worked. A full season – or even to start a new one? Can’t see it.
So what does that mean for the games when they resume in December? Games played in empty arenas? (Hey, piped in crowd noise and cardboard cut outs do work…) Players housed in and around the various game sites as to limit their exposure to the general public (how’s that going to go over with players families?) Limiting/restricting media access to players and coaches? Only home team broadcasters calling games live?
All of the above.
And what about minor league hockey? The NBA G-League? Will they get to have seasons at all? Only if they can simulate a bubble environment.
This long national nightmare isn’t over for any of us. Professional sports will have to continue to adapt for the foreseeable future.
Strike Three: Offensive tackle Ja’Wuan James was scheduled to be the Denver Broncos second-highest paid player in 2020, earning a salary of better than $13 mil for the season. So the Broncos caught a little bit of a salary cap break when oft-injured offensive tackle opted out for the 2020 season (assuming there is one) due to concerns about COVID-19. You can’t really fault any player for those concerns. Everyone has to do what he thinks is best for himself and his family. And yet you wouldn’t be wrong if you pointed out that James has spent more time on the injured list than on the playing field since coming to Denver…so maybe it’s not a huge loss, even if it comes at a position that’s painfully thin to begin with.
It will all play out on the field.
What James decision does do for the Broncos immediately is give them $13 million in salary cap space for this season. Many close observers have begun to beat the drum for the Broncos to quickly go out and sign a player like free agent cornerback Logan Ryan to help shore up a potential weak spot on the defensive side. And while it would be an excellent ‘get’ for Denver to land the 29-year-old former Patriot, it would also leave them in a precarious situation going into next season. Ryan is looking for a nice payday included in a multi-year contract.
Perhaps the greater concern for the Broncos, which supersedes the need to add depth to the secondary in 2020, is the impact the pandemic could have on the team’s salary cap situation in 2021.
Remember, there’s nothing arbitrary about where the NFL sets the salary cap for the coming season. It’s all based on a formula that divides profits based on the previous season’s revenues. And with revenues projected to be waaaaaay down in 2020 (no tickets being sold for one thing) what was previously projected to be a salary cap of about $210 mil for 2021 (it’s set at $198.2 mil for 2020) could be reduced by as much as $55 mil in a worst case scenario.
That would put the Broncos – and a lot of other teams not named the Patriots – in a world of hurt.
New England is one of just four teams that are not already over the new, worst-case salary cap projections for next season. The Broncos are not one of the four teams. In other words, the Broncos as they’re currently constructed are already financially overcommitted for next season.
There’s only one remedy for Salary Cap Purgatory: Cutting payroll. For the Broncos, that could conceivably – or inconceivably, depending on how you look at it – involve the salary of their highest paid player, Von Miller. The All-Pro pass rush specialist will cost Denver more than $22 mil all by himself next season. Defensive back A.J. Bouye is next at $13.5 mil followed by James at $13 mil. There are always remedies to cap issues. Restructuring, outright releasing players, trades, etc. But unless one of those players is moved or accepts a serious salary cut to stay put, the Broncos are going to have to make some painful roster decisions. Kareem Jackson, Jurrell Casey and Graham Glascow – the latter two recent free agent acquisitions – are the other Broncos making better than $10 mil a year.
If the worst happens, and the pandemic does major damage to the NFL finances in 2020, someone – or more than one – will likely have to go.