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Mark Knudson’s Three Strikes Blog: What if Peyton hadn’t come to town? The saga of Luke the Transfer, and two weeks that can shape the Rockies future

Strike One: Pat Bowlen and John Elway are already members of the Denver Broncos Ring of Fame. Joe Ellis will not be joining them.

The current and soon-to-be former CEO of the Broncos is on his way out the door, and the organization will be far better off on and off the field when he and his untrustworthy “Trust” partners are long gone.

We won’t be getting to hear the testimony that was slated to have taken place in court hearings this month to determine if Ellis and Company had coerced an ailing Mr. Bowlen into relinquishing control of the team well before they officially took over in the summer of 2014. But after multiple sources confirmed it when I wrote about the situation in December of 2019, there can be zero doubt that Ellis was unscrupulously usurping power and making bad football decisions well before he was given the official authority to do so. For example, it was Ellis, not Bowlen, who decided to fire Mike Shanahan in 2009 and replace him with Josh McDaniels. An extremely well-placed source told me that Mr. Bowlen was actually distraught while the firing was taking place. All the stories and statements attributed to Bowlen about Shanahan’s dismissal are rubbish.

Joe Ellis was and remains in over his head while he plays wanna-be NFL owner. The NFL has finally figured that out, too, and the sale of the team is now eminent. Thankfully, when the Broncos are sold in the not-too-distant future and Ellis’ “Future owner Brittany Bowlen” charade is officially over, the Broncos can get a legit owner/leader and turn the page on an ugly chapter in team history.

Ellis’s defenders will say, “Hey, they won the Super Bowl while he was in charge!” And that’s true. But did Ellis have anything to do with that?

The answer is a very strong “No, he did not.”

Back in 2012, after the McDaniels debacle had played itself out, Bowlen – already suffering from the impact of Alzheimer’s Disease that would ultimately take his life – made one final and impactful executive decision. Against Ellis’ wishes, he brought Elway back into the organization and gave him football decision-making authority. Elway then hired John Fox, signed Peyton Manning, and then replaced the pretty successful Fox with an even better fit in Gary Kubiak.

Sources tell me that Ellis was very unhappy and didn’t want “Number 7” in the building.

Yet Manning gives Elway all the credit possible for bringing him to Denver.

So…what if Ellis had gotten his way and Elway never came back to the organization?

Obviously if there was no Elway would have been no Fox and no Peyton. No Peyton, no four straight AFC West titles. No Super Bowl 48. No Super Bowl 50 trophy. Nothing.

If Elway isn’t around then whomever the new coach Ellis would have hired would have been stuck with Tim Tebow and whatever other journeyman QB Denver could have landed. Imagine the current run of sub-mediocrity having started a whole lot sooner. The Broncos string of losing seasons might have reached double digits by now if Ellis had been solely in charge.

Elway deserves all the accolades he’s gotten for his playing career and his handling of the Manning situation. His place in Broncos lore is secure beyond any doubt. Meanwhile, his front office rival, Ellis, deserves a pink slip bigger and glossier than the one he gave Shanahan. He and his Trust cohorts can’t hit the bricks soon enough.

Strike Two: College athletes should be careful what they ask for. They wanted free agency in the form of the NCAA’s disastrous “Transfer Portal.”  Now that they have it, a whole lot of them are finding that the turf aint any greener on the other side.

Let’s take the case of former Valor Christian standout Luke McCaffrey. A four-star recruit out of high school, McCaffrey signed with Nebraska and was destined to be a star in Lincoln. During his brief appearances as a true freshman season (it was a redshirt season because he played in just the requisite four games to retain his freshman status) he was cheered loudly by the Husker faithful, playing quarterback and wide receiver, and making several exciting plays. His future in red looked very bright.

In last season’s Covid-delayed Big Ten opener at Ohio State, McCaffrey came into the game as a running back and made a huge play with his feet, a 47-yard run that set up a touchdown on the Huskers opening possession. It looked like he was poised to play a significant role in the offense. When things bogged down on that side of the ball for starting QB Adrian Martinez, McCaffrey even got two starts start under center and led a win over Penn State.

His feet were electric. His arm…not so much. After McCaffrey threw twice and many interceptions as touchdowns, Martinez won back the starting job.

So McCaffrey did what kids are doing these days. He bailed out. Transferred to Louisville, where for some reason he thought he was going to be handed the starting job. When Cardinals coach Scott Satterfield made it clear that he’d have to compete with Pine Creek product Brock Domann and Trey Franklin to win the spot, McCaffrey did what the rules still allowed him to do (because he hadn’t officially signed a scholarship deal with Louisville yet) and transferred yet again.

Musical schools.

Now, the well-traveled still-Covid-freshman-to-be has put down his shallow roots in Houston, with the Rice Owls. He’s one of roughly 75% of Power Five players who enter the portal and come out on the other side at a non-power five school. Rice Head Coach Mike Bloomgren has promised him he’s going to start.

Stay tuned to see how long he stays there.

There are currently roughly 1,700 college football players languishing in the NCAA Transfer Portal. They’re all learning a life lesson the hard way. Picking up your ball and going home when things don’t go your way is no way to learn how to compete at the most important game of all – the game of life.

Strike Three: The Colorado Rockies have two weeks to make an impactful trade – the kind of deal that could help rebuild the franchise for the immediate future.

It should be pretty clear that A) the current roster is insufficient to contend for a post-season berth, B) the team won’t be venturing back into the free agent market any time soon – and given their recent history of lousy FA signings, that’s a good thing – and C) if they don’t trade valuable assets Trevor Story and Jon Gray on or before August 31, those two will walk away at the end of the season (and their current contracts) and Colorado will get zip in return.

You make the call.

It’s become very evident that interim General Manager Bill Schmidt will indeed have that “interim” tag removed in the near future. Owner Dick Monfort won’t embrace an overhaul of the front office (or a change in organizational philosophy) so Schmidt will be given the job full time. His first major task will be to make sure he doesn’t get bilked in a big trade the same way his predecessor did in the brutal Nolan Arenado deal.

There are contending teams out there looking for help. So which calls should Schmidt accept, and which teams should he leave on hold?

The Rockies are certain to get a call from their National League West rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers, regarding Gray. LA is hurting with Clayton Kershaw on the IL and Trevor Bauer suspended. Neither will be back before the deadline, and the Dodgers are in a three-way dogfight for what would be their ninth -straight division crown.

If you were the Rockies, would you trade Gray within the division?

If the farm-system rich Dodgers would give up say, three top prospects for a guy who has been a .500 pitcher during his Rockies career, Schmidt would likely have to take that kind of deal…after making sure it was the best one he could get. The Dodgers have been phenomenal at drafting and developing young talent. Getting a potential Rookie of the Year kind of guy would be too good to pass up.

As for Story, he’s been linked to the Yankees on the rumor mill, the New York doesn’t have the same kind of rich farm system as the Dodgers. Story will demand big money on the free agent market this off season if A) the team he’s traded for doesn’t sign him long term first, and B) depending on the outcome of collective bargaining talks and how that shapes immediate and future free agent markets.

There are a lot of “ifs” in play with both Story and Gray. A lot of pieces to the puzzle that have to be put together carefully. If Schmidt is going to be better at this gig than his predecessor, he’s got to start off by making sure he doesn’t get stiffed too.

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