The entire world is facing a “new normal” after the effects of the global pandemic finally subside. Sports – and baseball in particular – will never look exactly the same.
Strike One: Even before COVID-19 took over the world, Major League Baseball was on a clear path to downsize their decades old farm system model. Facing pressure to start paying minor leaguers reasonable (minimum wage) salaries, the industry planned on doing what many others have done in similar situations – reduce the size of the work force. If you have to pay employees more money, have fewer employees.
It’s been reported that at least 28, and as many as 42, minor league franchises – roughly one per MLB team – are on the chopping block. That includes both minor league franchises located in Colorado – Class A Grand Junction and Class A Colorado Springs. Both are reportedly going to be eliminated due to the restructuring or elimination of the leagues they’ve been playing in. Reducing travel is another cost saving measure being implemented across the minor leagues.
Despite the hand wringing of many followers of the minor leagues, including some politicians, this is the right move for MLB. If we’re being honest, there’s never really been a need for every MLB organization to have seven or even eight minor league affiliates. Losing one each won’t harm the on-field product in the least.
Now that COVID has happened, and we’re going a full year without any minor league baseball, it’s fair to speculate that this plan will indeed quietly become reality – probably for next season – and that each MLB organization will lose one, and in some cases two, minor league affiliates.
What will this do to player development?
Not much, actually. It will give each MLB organization a few less players to work with and evaluate on an everyday basis, but that’s all. And it’s unlikely given the sophistication of today’s scouting systems, that any top notch prospects will go unnoticed or unsigned. The talent base in the USA will still be scouted thoroughly, with even more emphasis placed on signing international talent.
What about the cities and towns like Grand Junction and Colorado Springs – historically very good baseball towns – that are losing their teams…and the people there that are losing their jobs? It’s never a good thing when this happens, but it’s not written in stone that these towns can’t have baseball teams. See Strike Three below…
Strike Two: So, the first seismic shift in America’s National Pastime is the downsizing of minor league baseball. If that happens, it would stand to reason that having fewer minor league teams and players would be a good thing for baseball at the collegiate level. Fewer minor league teams very well could – and should – mean the downsizing the annual amateur draft as well, from the current 30 rounds down to 20 or so. (This season’s five-round draft was an outlier of course due to the pandemic, but it does show that have a long drawn out draft probably isn’t necessary.)
This all means that more talented young players would not be turning pro out of high school, meaning more would instead – in theory – be entering college programs.
College baseball – not nearly as popular as it’s football and basketball counterparts – could get a much needed boost. The College World Series has grown in popularity over the past couple of decades, so much so that it’s now a big time ESPN event and a solid money-maker for the NCAA.
The only real problem – and having more young players going to college instead of the bloated minor leagues would certainly help – is the concentration of talent in the warm weather climates. But even that has become a little less of an issue in recent years with uniform scheduling and starting dates, and with CWS champions coming from schools like Oregon State in 2018 (the Beavers have won the title three times since 2006.)
Most observers would have told you that college baseball was on the uptick.
Then COVID.
Now, college baseball – outside of the power conferences and uber successful warm weather programs – is an endangered species. With athletic department budgets being wrecked by the pandemic, non-revenue sports are on the chopping block everywhere. With baseball having the biggest budget among the non-revenue producing sports (although baseball does make money at many schools) it will be among the first programs to be eliminated by schools facing financial strain. Boise State is the latest example.
It’s a safe bet that when the dust settles and we assess the overall financial damage caused by pandemic, we’ll see a lot fewer schools that field a varsity college baseball program. We’re likely to see many schools shift their model to competing at the club level – where student-athletes pay to participate in sports sponsored by the school’s recreation department – and away from paying to field baseball programs that don’t even pay for themselves.
That doesn’t mean that college baseball won’t continue to churn out professional prospects. Playing in college remains the quickest path to reaching the major leagues. If you sign out of high school, you’re likely to spend several more seasons growing and learning the game in the minor leagues before reaching the show. In the vast majority of cases, college players are much closer to being ready for the big leagues. And that certainly could include student-athletes who have the means to participate in collegiate club baseball. They are available to be drafted, too.
All this simply means there are going to be fewer college programs for aspiring pros to play for, which qualifies as the second seismic shift in the game, post coronavirus.
Strike Three: So…what happens to those players/prospects who either don’t have an interest in attending college (or even junior college) and can’t find a landing place on any campus…and can’t find a spot in an MLB organization? What do they do?
Along with collegiate club baseball getting a boost from this downsizing, so too will independent professional leagues. There are currently seven independent professional baseball leagues, the most noteworthy being the American Association (which just so happens to be the name of a former Triple A league as well.) There’s room for unlimited growth for baseball in this setting.
Players, coaches, front office folks and even those small cities and towns who have lost their affiliation with college or professional baseball due to the downsizing can take heart. Those jobs and franchises lost due to downsizing can be replaced. It’s more than possible for places like Colorado Springs and Grand Junction to go independent – join one of the existing independent professional baseball leagues – and keep on playing ball.
This obviously takes a significant investment from an ownership standpoint, but it’s proven to be good business. Historically, well run minor league franchises have made very good profits. There are no restrictions or orders being sent down from above – these teams can pay the players whatever they want, market themselves however they choose and do any and all promotions they’d ever want to do…and keep all the proceeds.
Plus, MLB affiliated baseball is full of players who have spent time in independent leagues. It’s not the fastest route to the big leagues, but there is a viable pathway.
Let’s take this a step further: What about someone who is currently on the outside looking in – who has the means and the creativity – starting another professional baseball league like the XFL? What’s standing in the way? MLB should not be immune to competition. The XFL would have likely succeeded this time if not for the pandemic. So, taking that kind of XFL approach – funky new rules and the like – and applying them to baseball makes some sense too. It would take the right person running things to have it make dollars, too.
We can be pretty certain that these three things are going to happen within baseball after the pandemic is over: 1) Fewer minor league teams. 2) A reduction in the number of colleges and universities that field varsity baseball programs, and 3) the expansion of independent league baseball. Those are major shifts in the game. How major will depend on if there’s a Vince McMahon-type out there who loves baseball.