Strike One: It should be no secret why the Colorado Rockies aren’t spending any actual money on free agent acquisitions right now. After taking a $100 million hit during the pandemic wrecked 2020 season – and having no way to be certain what revenues will look like at the end of this season, Rockies ownership needs to be watching their pennies. Closely. Hard to blame them for that.
But the lack of spending the past two off seasons – including the one that precluded the pandemic forced shut down – has deeper roots than the impact of COVID-19.
Yes, the Rockies spent big – too big – on multi-year free agent deals between 2016 – 2020 (and that does not include the Nolan Arenado contract) and they got burned. Big time. They signed eight contracts – including Ian Desmond, Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy and others – that cost them $256 million. The return on those investments weren’t just poor, they were hideous. The eight players combined for a collective Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of minus 3.7.
Eight multi-year free agent contracts. Eight busts.
When ownership looks at those numbers and those results, it’s easy to see why they might be reluctant to throw money at any more free agents. But according to former Los Angeles Dodgers General Manager Dan Evans, that kind of reactive strategy isn’t necessarily the right way to look at things.
“I think still, there is an internal stigma about free agent pitching that dates back to (Denny) Neagle, 20 plus years ago,” Evans recalls. The Rockies signed the left hander to a five-year, $51 million dollar deal in December of 2000. He won just 17 games in four seasons combined before an arm injury and a legal issue ended his tenure in Denver.
Evans continued: “In this sport, if you’re afraid of your previous mistakes, you’ll be very hard pressed to make a really good decision because the game is relentless, and it throws you decisions to make on a daily basis. You can’t run away from your past, you have to learn from it and build. The only way they’re ever going to win – and not just in Coors Field, in any of the 30 organizations – you win with pitching. Their pitching just isn’t good enough. It’s not good enough from a domestic draft, from an international findings, and they really don’t participate in the free agent market…and when they have, they’ve failed.”
Says a lot about who is making the spending decisions.
Strike Two: Okay, so if you’re not going to get involved in the free agent market anymore – which many successful teams also avoid doing – then the only way to really compete is by doing an excellent job at drafting and developing your own “home grown” talent. Actually, when you’re a mid-market MLB franchise, player development needs to be at the forefront of what you do well, so that you can sign the occasional free agent to supplement what you already have. That should be a strength for a team like the Rockies, who (in a typical year) have better resources than most other mid-market franchises. Yet, for the Rockies, player development has not been a strength, either.
They’ve certainly had their successes – it would be virtually impossible not to – but they’ve had far more misses than hits, and when your arch-rival (the Dodgers) have excelled in that area, your misses get magnified. Since 2012, LA has drafted and developed standouts Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Will Smith and Walker Buehler, plus solid players like Alex Verdugo (traded to Boston for Mookie Betts) Gavin Lux and Dustin May. During those same drafts, the Rockies have selected starters David Dahl, Jon Gray and Ryan McMahon (none a consistent standout)…plus Sam Moll, Jordan Patterson, Forrest Wall, Riley Pint and Brendan Rodgers. And keep in mind, the Rockies were choosing before LA…in every case. Yes, the Rockies had the chance to draft Buehler. Ugg.
The Rockies on-again most often off-again work in the draft is highlighted by the struggles of most of the pitchers they’ve drafted and tried to develop. Former Rockies pitcher Jason Hirsh isn’t so much critical of who the Rockies have drafted as much as he’s concerned about what happens to those guys once they become Rockies farmhands.
“Once those players get into the system, that’s where they’re being let down,” noted Hirsh, who owns and operates a pitching training facility in northeast Denver. “They’ve stagnated. The ones who do make it through – a guy like Kyle Freeland for example – already fits the mold that they’re trying to fit everyone into…that sinker slider guy they want at Coors Field.
“Everyone gets shoehorned into this mold that’s supposed to have success at Coors Field, but that’s clearly not been the result. I’ve spoken with a bunch of players that have been through the system and are now out of that system, and my understanding is there’s a big disconnect between what the big league level is demanding and what each individual minor league level is demanding. The messaging is different from level to level or even from coach to coach. There’s not really and identity or a constant message at the lower levels that’s allowing players to progress.”
So if the Rockies aren’t going to go after free agent pitchers…and they aren’t going to be able to consistently train and develop the guys they draft, what’s left? Where’s the improvement supposed to come from?
Strike Three: It could start by learning how to win big at home, regardless. Location location location. It’s not just for real estate you know.
Supposedly the biggest issue in attracting free agent pitchers to Denver remains the never ever ever ending saga of the mile high altitude. There remains a sizeable portion of Rockies followers – including many in the media – who have become convinced that baseball played at high altitude will never work and that the Rockies are doomed to mediocrity because of their location.
Evans – a veteran of 35 years as a decision-maker in big league front offices – isn’t buying it.
“I know there’s a lot of comments about the altitude,” Evans acknowledges, “but I just attended four days of the SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) virtual conference, and I heard things from some of the experts in the game that shot down some of the arguments I’ve been hearing publicly about the altitude. To me, it makes me wonder whether or not it’s a crutch in some cases, or it’s perhaps a lack of awareness and knowledge due to a variety of factors.
“It seems as though, rather than embracing the altitude, they use it as an excuse. To me, you have to embrace your home field. Whether it’s the quirkiness of Oracle Park, or Fenway Park…the day games at Wrigley. Whatever it is, you have to embrace your home field. The Rockies don’t have a roster that’s built for their home ballpark.”
This isn’t the first time someone has pointed out that every other team in the region, pro and college, use the altitude to their advantage, while the Rockies – privately now, but painfully publicly in previous years – fuss about the effects of playing at a mile high. Modern training and recovery methods should render the “conditioning” point moot at this point. Many of the world’s top athletes choose to train at high altitude to get in peak physical condition. The Rockies strength and conditioning people are more than aware of this and continue their work with that in mind.
Pitchers should be able to adjust (as many of us did during our playing days) to the conditions. The difference on a breaking ball is real, but minimal. In fact, the effect of the thin air on curve balls is so small that the Rockies have encouraged pitchers like Jon Gray, who have relied on sliders, to throw more curves.
The hitters have modern machinery now that can simulate pitches thrown in any conditions anywhere to practice with, home and road.
The late great Don Baylor never once griped about the altitude when he managed the expansion Rockies. But the guys who had to face the Blake Street Bombers in the mid 1990’s sure did. Now is the time for the current Rockies to adopt Don’s attitude and start making Coors Field the enemy of the enemy again.