@MarkKnudson41
Strike One: There’s been no shortage of hand wringing during this Colorado Rockies off season. In the aftermath of the shortened 2020 season that saw the club lose big on and off the field, there’s been no real effort to bolster the roster. There are fears that some of the team’s very best players may be wearing a different uniform by the time Spring Training starts next month.
All of these concerns are legit. The only way the 2021 Rockies end up being better than the 2020 version is if pretty much every members of the existing roster plays a whole lot better than they did last summer. Reinforcements aren’t coming.
To be fair, if you were operating a business that lost $100 million last year, like the Rockies ownership did, you wouldn’t be looking at increasing your spending, either. What you’d be looking for is ways to recoup at least some of that massive loss. Trading away players making big salaries, while not bringing more salary on board. It makes business sense.
But how do you balance that with the need to put a better product on the field?
You get creative, that’s how. You take what you have, and you squeeze every bit of success you can get out of it.
It starts on the mound. The Rockies have a better than average group of starting pitchers. That’s the good news. The bad news is that in the abbreviated 2020 season, Colorado had the single worst first inning ERA in the major leagues 6.75. That’s…horrible.
They also had the game’s worst ERA in the 7th inning at 8.22…and tied with division rival Arizona for the worst in the 8th at 6.98.
It doesn’t matter what your offensive struggles are, if you’re putting up those kinds of pitching numbers in those key innings, you’re going to lose a lot of baseball games.
Which brings us back to the need for creativity – finding a way to get the most out of your existing roster and available minor league talent.
Rockies manager Bud Black should start here: Find a relief pitcher, or maybe two, that can excel at baseball’s newest invented role, the “Opener.” Someone who can start a lot of games – sometimes several in a row – with no runners on base, and produce a clean inning on the scoreboard almost every time out. One single inning. Then hit the showers.
After the opener departs, you bring in that day’s previously designated ‘starter’ to begin the 2nd inning. Presumably, he’s facing the lower half of the other team’s batting order while he gets comfortable on the mound. Kyle Freeland, Jon Gray, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatella. These guys should then be able to take the hill and more often than not give Black six solid innings – which takes you past the troublesome 7th.
It’s worked in places like Tampa and New York. The Rays used an opener seven times (winning six of those games) on their way to winning the American League pennant in the 60-game 2020 season. In 2019 (the last time we had a real, legitimate MLB season) the Yankees used short reliever Chad Green to start 15 times and won 11 of those games. The Los Angeles Angels even threw a combined no-hitter with the opener pitching two innings and the ‘starter’ finishing the last seven.
But what about Colorado’s beleaguered bullpen? Could they handle it? Asked more often than not last season to enter games in the 6th and 7th innings and just try to hold on, they didn’t produce successful results. So why not try something different? This new approach just might help fix what’s so badly broken. If an opener and then the starter gets Black to the 8th inning, he would need fewer guys he could trust to enter games in “high leverage” situations – with runners on base trying to hold a late inning lead. You still need solid work from those relievers, of course. No way around that. You just need fewer of them to consistently excel in tight spots.
Having been a starter and a reliever at the Major League level, I can promise you that it’s easier to start a game with a clean slate than it is to enter the fray with runners on and the game on the line. Opener might be a great role for a guy like Yency Almonte, or Tyler Kinley. If Black is counting in Mychal Givens and reigning National League Comeback Player of the Year Daniel Bard to anchor things late in games, using an Opener could give him more flexibility – assuming that his ‘starters’ can get to the 8th more often than not. It’s certainly worth trying. Doing things the “normal” way in 2020 didn’t work.
Strike Two: Of course, any and all in-game strategy hinges on having that foursome of designated starters mentioned above all healthy and productive – and still on the roster – when the season begins. Trades can (and probably will) still happen.
Gray in particular is an interesting case. Fresh off signing a new one-year $6 million contract that prevented an arbitration hearing, Gray could be attractive to other clubs seeking another arm… and he has a salary the Rockies would love to dump. They got rid of David Dahl for far less. The Rockies could probably get a nice piece or two in exchange for Gray.
There’s no questioning the former first round pick’s ability. Opponents have long stated that he has “ace” stuff. But he’s been wildly up and down as Rockie. And he will be due a nice new contract – with a raise – if he’s still a Rockie next winter. While most of the trade talk has been focused on Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, Gray is probably the most “tradeable” Rockie at this very moment.
Gray’s spot in the rotation could be filled by Ryan Castellini or Peter Lambert. Both have some experience and have had a little success. And both are still getting paid close to minimum wage. Unfortunately, that’s how Colorado’s front office is seeing things right now.
Rockies fans are coming to the understanding that their team’s response to last year’s COVID wracked season is – and will continue to be – to tighten their belts. It’s the way a small business – and at their core, the Rockies are owned and operated like a small, family-run business – is run. While division rival San Diego has taken the opposite approach and pushed all their chips to the middle of the table trying to overtake the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Rockies front office is telling us – without telling us – that a purge is coming. Arenado, Story, Charlie Blackmon and a host of others won’t be Rockies for the long term. A tearing down (especially money-wise) and then building back up is coming. When it starts in earnest is anyone’s guess.
Strike Three: It’s hard to find too much fault in that kind of outlook, given Colorado’s status as a mid-market team with limited revenues from local broadcasts, coming off a season with zero ticket or in-game revenues. A tear down and rebuild is sort of inevitable (and Colorado is not the only team approaching the 2021 season that way) under the circumstances. Doesn’t mean you can’t still compete. Tampa has proven that it’s not how much you spend on salaries, it’s how you spend it. Small-market, low budget organizations can still reach the post-season…if they’re run correctly.
But how’s the Rockies impending rebuild going to be conducted and accomplished? The most important question anyone can ask Rockies brass right now: Not if, but how?
Modern baseball success stories – like the AL Champion Rays – have been built on front office use of analytics. The Dodgers – with more resources than any team in MLB – employ a staff of 26 in their analytics department. Last season, the Rockies had six people working as “data researchers” underneath Assistant General Manager Zack Rosenthal. In early December, four of the six left the organization. Published reports say they were grossly underpaid and left for better paying gigs.
Currently, there’s that perfectly understandable hiring freeze at 20th and Blake. So when these members of what amounted to the majority of Colorado’s analytics department departed, they were not replaced. There are just two people left to analyze data at Coors Field. That means Rockies players who want to stay up to date on the latest available information are going to be left wanting. The resources simply aren’t available.
Several burdensome and unproductive contracts (like Ian Desmond’s) are coming off the books after this season. That will help the bottom line…but it won’t help the on field product unless at least some of the savings are re-invested into big upgrades in the area of data research. It may not be what we old school types are used to, but the fact of the matter is that the game has changed, and in some respects, analytics now rule. More important than bolstering the Rockies roster is bolstering the ability of the front office to give immediate assistance to the players that are currently wearing purple.